economics


Preparing for the Great Trumpression

Back in 2006 a client walked into my office with an impossible mortgage. Countrywide Bank gave a 70 year old a 30 year mortgage for more than 100% the value of her house. She was underwater the day she closed, with no possible way to ever sell that house. I was aghast, and wondered what was going on that Countrywide was willing to take on risk like that. I didn’t quite understand the whole securitization […]


Book Review: “The Age of Deleveraging”, a tome by A. Gary Shilling

I heard Gary Shilling speak at a conference last month and his discussion of demographics was interesting and insightful so I sought out his most recent book: “The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation”. This book was 500 pages long. Five hundred. I told B. I felt like I was taking a graduate level course in economic forecasting. I’m not even sure how to integrate this book into […]


Book Review: “The Road to Serfdoom”

Lord Keynes is said to have quipped a response to Hayek’s analysis of what happens in the long run: “In the long run, we’re all dead.”  Guess what?  You and I, Dear Reader, are not dead.  It turns out Hayek was right and Keynes was too short-sighted. This book was written 70 years ago and is so devastatingly right in its predictions and analysis that it’s stunning that it hasn’t been more widely taught and […]